{"id":2976,"date":"2021-07-18T19:54:55","date_gmt":"2021-07-18T17:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha-credo.com\/regionalizacija-globalne-trgovine\/"},"modified":"2021-07-20T16:07:53","modified_gmt":"2021-07-20T14:07:53","slug":"regionalizacija-globalne-trgovine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha-credo.com\/sl\/regionalizacija-globalne-trgovine\/","title":{"rendered":"Regionalizacija globalne trgovine"},"content":{"rendered":"

World Economic Forum (WEF) predvideva, da se bo svetovna trgovina v prihodnje soo\u010dala z vse ve\u010djo deglobalizacijo. Analitiki ocenjujejo, da mednarodna izmenjava ne bo upadla, bo pa zelo verjetno postala bolj regionalna. Dogodki, kot so pandemija COVID-19, trgovinska vojna med ZDA in Kitajsko ter blokada Sue\u0161kega prekopa, so imeli izrazit vpliv na regionalizacijo globalne trgovine.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podatki o mednarodni izmenjavi za obdobje 1815 – 2014 ka\u017eejo, da je v tem obdobju pribli\u017eno 60 % globalne izmenjave steklo med dr\u017eavami na istem kontinentu, 40 % globalne trgovine pa med dr\u017eavami na razli\u010dnih kontinentih. Na drugi strani podatki za obdobje 2016 – 2020 ka\u017eejo, da je 80 % globalne trgovine potekalo med dr\u017eavami na razli\u010dnih kontinentih in 20 % med dr\u017eavami na istem kontinentu. Toda Brexit in pandemija COVID-19 sta povzro\u010dila, da je doslej stabilno razmerje (80\/20) v letu 2020 zanihalo. Tako je pribli\u017eno 25% globalne trgovine potekalo med dr\u017eavami na istem kontinentu, 75 % globalne trgovine pa med dr\u017eavami na razli\u010dnih kontinentih. Regionalizacijo je mo\u010d opaziti tudi ob pogledu povpre\u010dne uvozne razdalje v dr\u017eavah EU-28. V letu 2020 je ta povpre\u010dna razdalja padla iz 6.000 kilometrov na 5.200 kilometrov.<\/p>\n

Trend regionalizacije lahko opazimo tudi s preu\u010devanjem nivoja nove blagovne izmenjave – raven izmenjave izdelkov med dr\u017eavami, ki nikoli niso trgovale z blagom na komercialni ravni. WEF tukaj ugotavlja, da je imela povpre\u010dna uvozna razdalja negativni trend v zadnjih petih letih in je leta 2019 dosegla najni\u017ejo raven po svetovni finan\u010dni krizi leta 2008. Poleg tega je trgovina med sosednjimi dr\u017eavami dosegla rekordnih 18 % leta 2019, medtem ko je bilo svetovno povpre\u010dje v zadnjih dveh desetletjih 9-10 %. Hkrati pa podjetja kraj\u0161ajo svoje dobavne verige, da bi postala bolj odporna na morebitne neugodne geopoliti\u010dne razmere ali nove zdravstvene krize.<\/p>\n

Globalizacija bo v mednarodni trgovini \u0161e vedno prisotna, vendar bo njena hitrost v prihodnje upadala. Pandemija COVID-19 je povzro\u010dila dodaten pritisk na \u017ee tako stagnirajo\u010de nivoje mednarodne izmenjave. Najnovej\u0161e analize o globalni trgovini ka\u017eejo, da so vzorci regionalizacije statisti\u010dno zna\u010dilni in posledi\u010dno postajajo vse ve\u010dji izziv za oblikovalce ekonomskih politik. Hkrati bo regionalizacija podjetja spodbudila v razvoj novih strategij in vlaganja sredstev v preu\u010devanje in upravljanje novih, impliciranih tveganj.<\/p>\n

\n

Avtor prispevka je ekipa ALPHA CREDO<\/p>\n

Viri:<\/p>\n

Economic Forum (2021). Regionalization vs globalization: what is the future direction of trade?.\u00a0<\/i>Dostopno tukaj<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

World Economic Forum (WEF) predvideva, da se bo svetovna trgovina v prihodnje soo\u010dala z vse ve\u010djo deglobalizacijo. Analitiki ocenjujejo, da mednarodna izmenjava ne bo upadla, bo pa zelo verjetno postala bolj regionalna. Dogodki, kot so pandemija COVID-19, trgovinska vojna med ZDA in Kitajsko ter blokada Sue\u0161kega prekopa, so imeli izrazit vpliv na regionalizacijo globalne trgovine. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nRegionalizacija globalne trgovine - Alpha Credo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha-credo.com\/regionalization-of-global-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sl_SI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Regionalizacija globalne trgovine - Alpha Credo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"World Economic Forum (WEF) predvideva, da se bo svetovna trgovina v prihodnje soo\u010dala z vse ve\u010djo deglobalizacijo. Analitiki ocenjujejo, da mednarodna izmenjava ne bo upadla, bo pa zelo verjetno postala bolj regionalna. 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